CPI  FORECAST

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HEADLINE  CPI  ESTIMATE

Arkomina Research CPI forecast is part of Marko’s CPI Report.

 

Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, Arkomina CPI estimates have had a close-to-perfect

average miss of only -0.8 bps for the headline CPI YoY.

 

Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 17 of the last 24 months, or 71% of the time.

CORE  CPI  ESTIMATE

Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, the average miss for the core CPI YoY has been only -0.8 bps.

 

Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 17 of the last 24 months, or 71% of the time.

PUBLISHED  CPI 

ESTIMATES

 

CPI estimates from 2024 onwards have been published on Substack. Here are the links:

 

Jun 2025

May 2025

Apr 2025

Mar 2025

Feb 2025

Jan 2025

 

Dec 2024

Nov 2024

Oct 2024

Sep 2024

Aug 2024

Jul 2024

Jun 2024

May 2024

Apr 2024

Mar 2024

Feb 2024 

Jan 2024

 

CPI estimates in 2023 were published on X.com (Twitter). Here are the links to prior estimates:

Dec 2023

Nov 2023

Oct 2023

Sep 2023

Aug 2023

Jul 2023

Jun 2023

May 2023

Apr 2023

Feb 2023

Jan 2023

 

*Note: Mar 2023 wasn’t publicly published.

 

PCE ESTIMATE

HEADLINE  PCE  ESTIMATE

Arkomina Research PCE forecast is part of Marko’s Fed Report.

 

Since introducing public PCE estimates in Feb 2024, Arkomina PCE estimates have had a near-perfect average miss of -0.6 bps for the headline PCE MoM.

CORE  PCE  ESTIMATE

Since introducing public PCE estimates in Feb 2024, average miss for the core PCE MoM has been only -0.7 bps.

PUBLISHED  PCE 

ESTIMATES

PCE estimates have been published on Substack. Here are the links:

 

May 2025

Apr 2025

Mar 2025

Feb 2025

Jan 2025

 

Dec 2024

Nov 2024

Oct 2024

Sep 2024

Aug 2024

Jul 2024

Jun 2024

May 2024

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Mar 2024

Feb 2024

Impressed by Arkomina Research CPI and PCE forecasts' near-perfect track record?