CPI FORECAST
AS
SEEN
ON
HEADLINE CPI ESTIMATE
Arkomina Research CPI forecast is part of Marko’s CPI Report.
Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, Arkomina CPI estimates have had a close-to-perfect average miss of only -1 bp for the headline CPI YoY.
Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 19 of the last 28 months, or 68% of the time.
CORE CPI ESTIMATE
Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, the average miss for the core CPI YoY has been only -1 bp.
Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 20 of the last 28 months, or 71% of the time.
PUBLISHED CPI
ESTIMATES
CPI estimates from 2024 onwards have been published on Substack. Here are the links:
2025
2024
CPI estimates in 2023 were published on X.com (Twitter). Here are the X links:
*Note: Mar 2023 wasn’t publicly published.
PCE ESTIMATE
HEADLINE PCE ESTIMATE
Arkomina Research PCE forecast is part of Marko’s Fed Report.
Since introducing public PCE estimates in Feb 2024, Arkomina PCE estimates have had a near-perfect average miss of -0.7 bps for the headline PCE MoM.
CORE PCE ESTIMATE
Since introducing public PCE estimates in Feb 2024, average miss for the core PCE MoM has been only -0.8 bps.
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