CPI  FORECAST

AS

SEEN

ON

HEADLINE  CPI  ESTIMATE

Arkomina Research CPI forecast is part of Marko’s CPI Report.

 

Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, Arkomina CPI estimates have had a close-to-perfect

average miss of only -2 bps for the headline CPI YoY.

 

Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 14 of the last 21 months, or 67% of the time.

CORE  CPI  ESTIMATE

Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, the average miss for the core CPI YoY has been only -2 bps.

 

Arkomina Research CPI forecasts have been closer to the actual numbers than the average Wall Street estimate in 14 of the last 21 months, or 67% of the time.

PUBLISHED  CPI 

FORECASTS

Here are public links to prior CPI forecasts:

                        2025                  2024                2023

                                                                 Dec 2024      Dec 2023

                                                                Nov 2024      Nov 2023

                                                               Oct 2024       Oct 2023

                                                                Sep 2024       Sep 2023

                                                                Aug 2024       Aug 2023

                                                            Jul 2024           Jul 2023

                                                              Jun 2024        Jun 2023

                                                                May 2024      May 2023

                                                               Apr 2024        Apr 2023

                                                                        Mar 2024                                              

                             Feb 2025      Feb 2024         Feb 2023

                            Jan 2025       Jan 2024         Jan 2023

 

*Note: Mar 2023 wasn’t publicly published.

 

PCE FORECAST

HEADLINE  PCE  ESTIMATE

Arkomina Research PCE forecast is part of Marko’s Fed Report.

 

Since introducing public PCE estimates in Feb 2024, Arkomina PCE estimates have had a perfect

average miss of 0 bps for the headline PCE MoM.

CORE  PCE  ESTIMATE

Since introducing public PCE estimates in Mar 2024, average miss for the core PCE MoM has been only -1 bps.

PUBLISHED  PCE 

FORECASTS

Here are public links to prior PCE forecasts:

 

2025                   2024

                                Dec 2024

                                Nov 2024

                                Oct 2024

                                Sep 2024

                                Aug 2024

                            Jul 2024

                               Jun 2024

                                May 2024

                               Apr 2024

                                Mar 2024

                                Feb 2024

Jan 2025                                    

 

Impressed by Arkomina Research CPI and PCE forecasts' near-perfect track record?