EXCEPTIONAL CPI FORECAST
HEADLINE CPI ESTIMATE*
Arkomina Research has had an exceptional accuracy when it comes to forecasting US CPI.
Arkomina’s CPI forecast is part of Marko’s CPI report.
Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, Arkomina CPI estimates have had an
average miss of -2 bps for the headline CPI YoY.
CORE CPI ESTIMATE*
Since introducing Marko's CPI Report in Mar 2023, average miss for the core CPI YoY has been only -4 bps.
PUBLISHED CPI FORECASTS
Almost all of the CPI forecasts (headline and core numbers) were published on X (formerly known as Twitter) or Substack prior to actual CPI prints.
Mar CPI forecast is the only CPI forecast in 2023 which wasn’t publicly published.
Here are the Substack and X links to monthly CPI forecasts in 2023 and 2024:
feb 2024 CPI
Jan 2024 CPI
DEC 2023 CPI
Tomorrow we get Dec #CPI.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) January 10, 2024
After convenient moves in Oct and Nov, a lot of it is at stake for tomorrow's CPI.
Also Dec CPI figures will be important for the #Fed Jan 31/Feb 1 meeting.
So where will Dec CPI print at?
A short thread. #inflation
1/4
Nov 2023 CPI
My Nov #CPI estimate is in line with consensus for headline and core MoM, as well as core YoY.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) December 11, 2023
However, I expect 0.1 pp lower than consensus headline YoY.
My estimates are also in line for both headline and core MoM, as well as headline YoY with the Cleveland #Fed but are 0.1… pic.twitter.com/PjbMLRLDhe
oct 2023 CPI
My Oct headline #CPI estimate is in line with consensus and Cleveland #Fed for headline on both MoM and YoY.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) November 13, 2023
This is the first time in many months that Cleveland Fed matches consensus estimates, albeit only for headline.
Headline CPI will likely show YoY improvement for the… pic.twitter.com/hOmoAOmGjR
Sep 2023 CPI
My #CPI estimate is, again, fairly in line with consensus, save -0.1 pp on YoY core.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) October 11, 2023
Cleveland #Fed is traditionally +0.1 pp above consensus estimates for all key figures.
It is also +0.1 pp above my estimates for MoM and headline YoY, while also +0.2 pp for core YoY.
Some are… pic.twitter.com/mWJhTvhFEw
Aug 2023 CPI
My estimates for Aug are the same as consensus while the Cleveland Fed is 0.2 pp higher for all 4 key metrics.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) September 12, 2023
3/7 pic.twitter.com/MchtnUeAse
Jul 2023 CPI
My #CPI estimates are the same for MoM and 0.1 lower for YoY than consensus.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 9, 2023
Also they are 0.2 pp lower for both MoM and YoY estimates from the Cleveland #Fed.#inflation
3/7 pic.twitter.com/v1tiUpt1fk
Jun 2023 CPI
My estimates are lower than consensus and the Cleveland #Fed for both core and headline #CPI.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) July 11, 2023
If headline and core CPI print like I expect, will that be enough for the Fed to keep pausing this M?#inflation
3/ pic.twitter.com/h4u3sgjsDR
May 2023 CPI
This morning at 8:30 Eastern we'll get the May #CPI.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) June 13, 2023
My estimates are a little better MoM, while YoY just a tad better for the headline and in line for the core.#inflation pic.twitter.com/ORLdz6G9gI
APR 2023 CPI
My #CPI estimates are in line with consensus for the first time in a while.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) May 9, 2023
Cleveland #Fed Nowcast traditionally expects higher figures.#inflation
2/8 pic.twitter.com/RGCu6V4AkE
Feb 2023 CPI
Here are my predictions.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) March 14, 2023
We are all in line for the core #CPI while I expected a bit higher headline #CPI than consensus and a bit lower than Cleveland #Fed.#inflation
3/5 pic.twitter.com/6gdRMbc5Yu
Jan 2023 CPI
Somewhat unusual to see my estimates above consensus for the headline and in line for the core #CPI.#inflation picked up in Jan but most of it was driven by seasonality.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) February 13, 2023
I suspect this seasonality might not be correctly reflected in the SA #CPI figures tomorrow.
8/11 pic.twitter.com/iNJ1rmi27X
DEC 2023 CPI Analysis
Many think Dec #CPI disappointed but actually it wasn't that much hotter than expectations like news headlines may suggest.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) January 11, 2024
In the details, CPI remains pretty cool.
Let's delve deeper under the hood.
A CPI thread.#inflation
1/9
Nov 2023 CPI Analysis
Many ppl look at Nov #CPI thinking the numbers are not as cool as they hoped for.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) December 12, 2023
But CPI was actually cooler than both mkt's and my expectations.
I'll explain why in the details of this report.
A CPI thread.#inflation
1/11
oct 2023 CPI Analysis
Oct #CPI came cooler than mkt expectations.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) November 14, 2023
In reality, CPI is even cooler than these numbers suggest.
I'll explain why in the details of this report.
A CPI thread.#inflation
1/11
DEC 2023 PCE ANALYSIS
Dec #PCE #inflation is at 2-handle and mkts think the #Fed will start cutting in Mar.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) January 26, 2024
Will they do it?
Let's delve deeper into the PCE figures.
A thread.
1/11
NOV 2023 PCE Analysis
Nov #PCE #inflation is at 2-handle (+2.6% YoY for headline) which means that more and more ppl are now realizing inflation is not a problem for the #Fed anymore.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) December 22, 2023
Still, things are far from celebratory.
More on this in a PCE thread.
1/10
Oct 2023 PCE Analysis
Oct #PCE came mostly in line with expectations with headline now at 3% and core at 3.5%.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) December 1, 2023
Many see #inflation more favorably now than a month or 2 ago but the #Fed keeps saying it is "too high".
What does it mean for them going forward and when will they finally cut?
🧵
1/16
JAN 2024 JOBS
REPORT
Jan Employment Report looks extremely hot with:💥NFP above +350K
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) February 2, 2024
💥UR not going up from 3.7% and
💥AHE rising +0.6% MoM
After annual revisions, it seems like there is much less weakness than it was prior to this print.
Let's dig deeper.
An employment thread.
1/8
DEC 2023 jobs report
Dec Employment Report looks hot on the surface with
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) January 5, 2024
💥NFP above +200K
💥UR not going up from 3.7% and
💥AHE running at +0.4% MoM for the 2nd month in a row.
However, there is much more weakness under the hood.
Let's dive deeper into the numbers.
A thread.
1/8
Nov 2023 jobs report
Nov Employment Report came in stronger than expected with almost all key metrics seemingly coming hotter than expected.
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) December 9, 2023
What does that all mean for the #Fed?
Let's delve deeper.
A thread.
1/9
This is just a fraction of what is available on X (formerly Twitter) and Substack, which is just a fraction of what is available to Arkomina clients.
Altogether, Arkomina Research produces more than 300 pages of macroeconomic and market research in a typical month.
They are part of 3 different reports (1 daily and 2 monthly/before each Fed meeting).
WHAT OTHERS SAY ABOUT ARKOMINA...
👏👏
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 13, 2024
Appreciate all your work Marko 👍
— Arshak kirakosyan (@Shaqk311) March 20, 2024
@MBjegovic has been spot on with his disinflation calls for a long time. https://t.co/R9tABgX89w
— Mako Management (@mako_management) December 20, 2023
great work man. interested to see how falling retail gasoline prices impact services and goods inflation
— FX enjoyer (@IreneuszIrzyk) December 11, 2023
Really appreciated this analysis, especially the part about why all the non standard metrics are important in times of high volatility. I've always wanted a simple way to explain why we do that to people who consider it "cheating" (ignoring reality) and this finally gave me the…
— Jason Joseph (@Musicalmindz) December 2, 2023
Nice call!
— Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy) November 14, 2023
Your analysis have been spot on , it saved me so much last year as I was going to sell my investments thinking infaltion is here to stay for long time , thank you
— Stefano (@Stefano_2006) November 14, 2023
Thank *you*. Always accurate, always clear explanations and a balanced view, without chasing the crowds. pic.twitter.com/6juy9esYdt
— HTL-NL 🇳🇱 (@htltimor) November 14, 2023
Great breakdown with clear numbers and explanations!
— LamaTesla (@YahalomU) November 14, 2023
Pro analysis and writing.
Nice to read your macro threads Marko
Congratulations to @MBjegovic for being the closest in accurately predicting the CPI forecast https://t.co/inKj7Uh68j
— powpaws (@powpowpaws) November 14, 2023
You said don't try to predict NFP from this month's soft ADP numbers cuz things can turn up different than ADP as that has happened many times. You were right! Thanks a lot man :D
— Kevin Woo (@bronzevirus) October 6, 2023
well said
— Kelly Evans (@KellyCNBC) September 28, 2023
Nice work marko https://t.co/IwXBgU7okX
— jim iuorio (@jimiuorio) September 1, 2023
@MBjegovic has been arguing this since last September.
— The Horseman (@0xHorseman) August 10, 2023
Here we are. 🎯
Highly recommend y’all follow him if you want no BS takes on the economy. https://t.co/HNvFvV5QXF
Spot on.
— Net Present Value (@Aesop_NPV) August 11, 2023
Actual at 3.0% headline and core at 4.8%, big beat!
— TheHappyHawaiian (@ThHappyHawaiian) July 12, 2023
Congrats to @MBjegovic who nailed it this month! https://t.co/jNFpyiBI5W